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High end watch prices in 2016

2K views 22 replies 12 participants last post by  tony20009 
#1 ·
I have been thinking of getting a new 5146G 001 for a few weeks now but being a markets professional I am wondering whether this is the best time. What do the seasoned hands here think? Given that asset prices globally looking poised for a correction, doesn't is make sense to wait for a dip in prices in the 40k segment.
 
#2 ·
I don't think Patek would officially decrease list prices. What you can get is a good discount from your AD. And discounts are already great on markets that suffer more than the others. What are they? if you're market professional you know about China drop, and oil economies situation..
I live in Russia and I was able to acquire most of my collection in last 2 yrs. Sometimes you can get -30% off US list price from an AD. For Patek and Rolex -15% is more realistic I'd say.. you can get more from a gray market dealer but it depends if you can find one you trust..
 
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#3 ·
I don't think Patek would officially decrease list prices.
Patek decreased list prices last year, by varying percentages, in most countries (in the UK it was 10%)

Of course there is nothing to say they wouldn't decrease them again if the global economy really goes into a spin but I think the decrease last year was seen as the correction that the list price needed.

As Urik81 suggested - a used piece or a decent discount will also further easy worries.
 
#4 ·
The prices last year were a bit disconcerting- down and then up again. I live in Hong Kong and it should feel the china pain first. But apparently not. Yes, I hear the used market is quite depressed but I am looking for a new watch to get started on my collection. The ADs are stubborn on only a 10% discount. I was getting some fabulous discounts on ALS though- 38% on a piece I didn't really want.

Of course, Patek would not give any hints on upcoming changes but having spoken to a few WIS I feel it is worth a wait.
 
#6 ·
The prices last year were a bit disconcerting- down and then up again. I live in Hong Kong and it should feel the china pain first. But apparently not. Yes, I hear the used market is quite depressed but I am looking for a new watch to get started on my collection. The ADs are stubborn on only a 10% discount. I was getting some fabulous discounts on ALS though- 38% on a piece I didn't really want.

Of course, Patek would not give any hints on upcoming changes but having spoken to a few WIS I feel it is worth a wait.
HK is a "global" place with lots of travelers from around the world. Moscow is much more "local" and we see much less foreigners here since end of 2014 when Ruble dropped to its current levels... well, we do have Chinese with plastic bags full of cash though.. ;)
 
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#7 ·
I don't agree. It did appear to happen as a reaction to a stronger Swiss franc but price conflicts exist still. In fact if it was just a realignment then there was no reason to reverse it in July. It does make a first time buyer think twice. Though I am sure PP is not really concerned about that. A lot of long time PP buyers, especially here in Hong Kong, were quite upset with the slash and happy when it was reversed. But then those were different times!!
 
#8 ·
Call me a naysayer on the whole global market collapse/high end watch price collapse theory being bandied about. It would be nice if the bottom falls out of the high end market because I would be happy to jump in and buy, but I just don't see it happening until demand for mechanical watches declines. I do not feel economics alone will do it unless we have global collapse, it would require reduced interest and less potential long term buyers as well...
 
#11 ·
10% discount is not so bad on PP. You'd have to do research if the ref 5146G 001 that you want is a high-demand ref like the Nautilus 5711 or 5726 which still wasn't discounting at all late last year at boutiques I visited, though not in HK. Remember that PP dealers know that most PP refs keep relatively great resell value (vs. comparables from AP/VC/ALS & the like) so expectations on high discounts should be tamed. My thought would be if you really love the 5146G ask for freebies to go with your 10% discount like some PP-branded straps, travel case, or watch box, maybe if the AD really wants the sale you could get PP cufflinks.

My speculative guess is the high-end market is going to offer more concessions this year during negotiations but not list price reductions. It'll start with the public company brands from Richemont & Swatch & LVMH because they face earnings forecast pressures. The private companies with sizeable capital reserves are going to stand firmer until their channels are desperate & need a lifeline.
 
#15 · (Edited)
My speculative guess is the high-end market is going to offer more concessions this year during negotiations but not list price reductions. It'll start with the public company brands from Richemont & Swatch & LVMH because they face earnings forecast pressures. The private companies with sizeable capital reserves are going to stand firmer until their channels are desperate & need a lifeline.
I couldn't agree more. Depending on the brand, 2016 or 2017 might be a good time for picking up a used/GM watch or negotiating a deal
 
#13 ·
Great stuff as usual, tony.

This made me re-think my approach not only in buying, but selling. Consider the opposite scenario of holding and selling. I'm waiting for my watch's value to increase in order to make profit, but I could've simply sold it now and put the money towards an investment instrument and start gaining money.
Thank you.

I have to agree with you re: the application of the principle to the selling side of the matter.

All the best.
 
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#17 ·
I live in Hong Kong, too, and was mystified to notice prices going up over the past 5 months. The only explanation I can think of is that people in China are looking for a safe haven for their money and art and watches are a safe haven compared to the markets. Some people who might not even be that interested in watches are coming in and buying several high end watches just to stick in the safe and sell in 7 years time, hopefully at a minor loss or minor profit. Better than actually losing money.
 
#20 ·
I think I have kind of made up my mind on The Watch, especially going by the advice from Tony et al, but will just wait till Baselworld, just around the corner to see if it throws up something (more) interesting. In the meantime just placed a couple of bids on two artworks which I (and my wife) have been waiting for a few years to come up on the auction circuit.
 
#21 ·
I think I have kind of made up my mind on The Watch, especially going by the advice from Tony et al, but will just wait till Baselworld, just around the corner to see if it throws up something (more) interesting. In the meantime just placed a couple of bids on two artworks which I (and my wife) have been waiting for a few years to come up on the auction circuit.
Waiting for Baselworld seems like a good plan. Perhaps your cash will grow a little bit while you wait. Never a bad thing to have happen. LOL

Glad to have been helpful. Enjoy whatever what you choose.

All the best.
 
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