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  1. #21
    Member Dan S's Avatar
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    Re: Just how rare is Omega Seamaster Geneve

    Quote Originally Posted by Tony C. View Post
    You're logic is flawed. There is an important variable in the contemporary vintage watch market that you, and many collectors fail to notice: critical mass.

    For example, as there are a huge number of existing, vintage Rolex Submariners, and a very large number circulating in the market at any given time, rare variations do command premiums, and sometimes they are very high. On the other hand, to use one of many examples, let's take the original IWC Yacht Club model line. Extremely successful for many years after having been introduced in the '60s, good examples of these excellent, understated sport watches have been bringing around $2k in the vintage market for a long time. Part of the reason for their popularity is that they typically feature cal. 854/8541 automatic movements, which were one of the very best made during the Golden Era of Swiss watchmaking (1940s–'60s). And, as they were produced during an era when automatics were all the rage, the vast majority of them were automatic.

    But a very small percentage – I would estimate no more than 5% – were manual-wind, and fitted with IWC's also fine cal. 89 movements. These rare manual-wind Yacht Clubs should, based on scarcity, command a notable premium over their relatively common automatic counterparts, yet they don't. Why? Because there aren't enough of them circulating in the market to generate wide interest among collectors! That's what I mean by critical mass.

    Another example, though broader, would be Audemars Piguet. Undoubtedly one of the three top-tier manufacturers during the Golden Era, they were also by far the lowest production. This means that there aren't enough examples circulating in the market to generate many posts on forums such as this, or photos on Instagram, etc. So, while they produced some beautiful watches that were every bit the equivalent quality of Patek Philippe, and in much smaller numbers, their values are typically much lower.
    I agree with this, but I could also add many other factors that invalidate the OPs premise.

    - Rare models often had a limited production run because they were not popular, and sometimes for good reason.
    - Similarly, it is not generally possible to apply the "all other factors being equal" criterion, since by definition different models have different designs/functions, which affects their desirability.
    - A distinction that is too fine (e.g. between "Seamaster" and "Seamaster Geneve") will not register on the market. They will just be seen as one of many variants (of Seamaster in this case), and not a separate "rare" model.
    - Marketing and emotional attachment greatly trumps rarity as a determinant of desirability. The popularity of "Seamaster" models would be an example of this. But the desirability of Rolex is obviously the most dramatic case study.

    There are many other caveats. Value is a function of rarity and desirability, and the latter is not simple to determine; it requires actual knowledge of details, not just a simple calculation of production numbers. Basically, I think the main message being sent to the OP is that it is not possible to skip the part of watch valuation where you actually become an expert by looking at hundreds and hundreds of auctions/sales and develop a detailed understanding of why those watches brought the prices that they did.
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  2. #22
    Member mkws's Avatar
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    Re: Just how rare is Omega Seamaster Geneve

    Quote Originally Posted by Tony C. View Post
    Again, the Genève was, with the exception of the 30T2Rg Chronometers, the top manual-wind model produced by Omega during the 1950s.
    Don't forget the Cosmic triple date moonphase, and the original Tresor...
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  3. #23
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    Re: Just how rare is Omega Seamaster Geneve

    Thanks so far for the useful insights. However, I rather think there is a danger of not seeing the woods from the trees.
    If you look back on my early post I submit "It's purely numbers of course and other characteristics have to be taken into account when deciding on collectability and rarity." The argument is only limited to the cosigned versus the single signed Geneve., and by extension to others where all things are equal or close enough equal, where critical mass is already established.

    I submit that although it appears only a marketing thing to have the cosigned names, there is potentially a matter of historical interest, purely from a naming convention, if nothing else. We all know that historical significance, however small, can be an important determinant to collectors and hence value , since collection by nature is emotional and emotion drives market forces. And of course suppy vs demand.

    The part mentioned in previous post by badbackdan about a distinction that is too fine would not register on the market is good to note. Thanks for that. Notwithstanding that, I submit that had the numbers come out dramatic then that would have an impact on registering on the market between the two variants, so effectively making a fine distinction sufficiently separated to affect premium, however small or large that happens to be.





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  5. #24
    Member VESPASIAN's Avatar
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    Re: Just how rare is Omega Seamaster Geneve

    Quote Originally Posted by mkws View Post
    Don't forget the Cosmic triple date moonphase, and the original Tresor...
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  6. #25
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    Re: Just how rare is Omega Seamaster Geneve

    Quote Originally Posted by VESPASIAN View Post
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    Don't know about the font, but that's a beaut. Given me something to think about as I was going to get the new Junghans Meister Calendar, although different.
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