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Are watch prices high or low?

972 views 18 replies 11 participants last post by  Ed Barclay 
#1 ·
I know we can't talk about prices of a particular piece, but I'm wondering about prices of watches in general.
I started off with the intent of buying one nice watch, now I have 4 and I still have the bug...

Looking at some watch pricing guides, for this year, I see prices on ebay are quite a bit higher than whats in print.
Am I paying too much by buying now?

Mike
 
#2 ·
I have always found the price guides to be 'out of date' on pricing. But don't be fooled by high prices asked by sellers that result in no sale.

I am tracking a few watches that are good examples. One has fallen to less than half of the original asking. It is still overpriced and still being relisted and relisted and relisted.
 
#3 ·
I have always found the price guides to be 'out of date' on pricing. But don't be fooled by high prices asked by sellers that result in no sale.

I am tracking a few watches that are good examples. One has fallen to less than half of the original asking. It is still overpriced and still being relisted and relisted and relisted.
I go by complete results not the for sale listings...

Going back to the original question, if we think of today as a reference, are watch prices high or low in general?

Mike
 
#7 · (Edited)
Bull or Bear? The last 3 years have been a bear market. But it is getting better. However, no wild speculators have been funding watch buying so we haven't had a bubble, that's for sure...

I think we should start a rumor that vintage watches extend your life or make you virile... LOL Oh, wait a minute... that might not be a good idea. I'll get priced out of the market!
 
#8 ·
Bull or Bear? The last 3 years have been a bear market. But it is getting better.
Hmm. I guess we all see things through the prism of our collecting niches, and I have no doubt that mine is narrow -chronographs. I see the last two or three years as a time of steady price rises and relatively easy flips (not that I sell a lot). Also, pieces that would have been unsellable because of condition now actually seem to have traction. My long term forecast is bullish. There's a vast collecting community in Asia that is gorging itself on new watches just now, and has barely discovered vintage outside of PP and Rolex, but I think they will, and the vintage cannot expand at will as the supply is limited, forgers notwithstanding.
 
#9 ·
At least on my end of the market, common stuff like 21 jewel railroads(especially Hamilton 992/992Bs, 16 size Bunn Specials, etc) in less than perfect condition is WAY down in price.

The good stuff is still holding its own, and even increasing in value. By good stuff I mean both rare stuff, and common stuff that's in especially nice condition.

Of course, with the recent craziness in gold value, few American gold cases are worth over their melt value. They pretty well have to be fancy cases(box hinge, scalloped border, multicolor) in really nice shape or contain a really interesting movement(Waltham Americans, etc) to be worth much over melt.
 
#12 ·
I don't see any incontrovertible evidence that the market is moving in any direction, in my niche (Postwar Elgins). I'll see some nice pieces go for the high end of what I'd expect, but then a similar piece with a less fancy listing will go for a lot less. Then again, my niche is small enough that one well-heeled and undiscriminating buyer could skew the whole market!
 
#13 · (Edited)
Then again, my niche is small enough that one well-heeled and undiscriminating buyer could skew the whole market!
And here is the truth of it once you are outside of the mass market brands such as Omega. One or two buyers who are interested in certain pieces can skew prices out of all proportion to the usual market price. Looking back over time, who could say if the price certain watches sold for were normal unless there was a good volume of them?
 
#17 · (Edited)
Rarity of a lot of vintage pieces will never let the price bottom out, IMO. There are always going to be collectors and new buyers in the market. A nice example will always sell.

Overall, it seems to me that prices have been fairly steady and/or climbing on the watches I've been collecting the last few years. I do LOVE it when I steal one on ebay though, and it still does, although not as often as it used to happen. It usually happens when a seller screws up their heading or description, or their too lazy to post much info, which keeps many buyers a way. I send private messages all the time to get clarifications. Sometimes, I strike gold!
 
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