Random thought about the Rolex BLNR (black and blue GMT)
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  1. #1
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    Random thought about the Rolex BLNR (black and blue GMT)

    Just thought about something and figured I'd share it. By no means am I saying I'm right, just something I thought might make sense. So obviously we know something like a Paul Newman Daytona has shot up beyond astronomically in value compared to its original value. I always wonder "what watch right now has potential to increase in value?" Maybe not increase like the Paul Newman, but you know, maybe double or triple in value. Anyway I was just thinking about the BLNR and thought hmmm its very sought after right now, even the grey market prices are drastically marked up, there is a long wait to get one from a boutique, its beautiful, it has a great complication, Rolex limits their supply in comparison to most of their models, etc. and it got me thinking that this could be watch that could shoot up in value over the next 30+ years. Also disclaimer that I don't think people should buy watches as an investment and that they should be worn, this post is just for discussion purposes. Anyway, tell me what you think, do you think the BLNR could be a watch that in 30, 40, 50, 100 years has at least some potential to be an icon with collectors dishing out big money to get their hands on one? I think its at least possible in theory ;)

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    Re: Random thought about the Rolex BLNR (black and blue GMT)

    I don't know. Rolex has to know that Batman is so hot right now. I have no idea what production is like on these but, given its popularity, I assume they are producing these in greater amounts, which would affect its value. Of course, Rolex may not be doing so, in which case, yeah I could see these increase. About a year and a half ago, I was at a Rolex AD and inquired about the Batman. The salesperson said he'd check in the back. He brought one back and remarked how I'd found a unicorn and that I should purchase then and there. I didn't of course.

    Now, I don't know if that was some sales ploy or not, but he made it sound like they were in short supply.
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    Re: Random thought about the Rolex BLNR (black and blue GMT)

    Anyway, tell me what you think, do you think the BLNR could be a watch that in 30, 40, 50, 100 years has at least some potential to be an icon with collectors dishing out big money to get their hands on one? I think its at least possible in theory ;)
    Sorry, but no. The PN Daytona is popular now because it was unpopular when it was first released. No one wanted it, so few were made and even fewer were kept in nice shape. Items that are popular from the start never become "big ticket" collectibles because plenty of people have them and many of those are well-maintained.

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    Re: Random thought about the Rolex BLNR (black and blue GMT)

    Exactly. There are too popular now to shoot up that much in value. It will be interesting to see how well the current Rolex models hold (or don't) their value in the future, giving that new ones are more expensive than they have ever been, by a wide margin.

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    Re: Random thought about the Rolex BLNR (black and blue GMT)

    I think we'll continue to see a premium for the BLNR for a while; I don't see it ever falling down to MSRP again in the GM, especially if the watch gets discontinued. In the long-term, I think the prices will stabilize but will always command a premium simply because so many people adore them. Daytona status though? Highly unlikely for the reasons stated above.

    Then again, who knows. Look at vintage Rolex collectors now: they'll grow wild over a different font of the number 4 or the spacing in between Rolex, Oyster, and Perpetual... Sometimes I feel like Rolex are the ultimate trolls, sitting in their HQ intentionally making these subtle changes just to troll the collectors into finding the next big thing and, again, drive up the vintage market prices to boost their brand prestige. ;)
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    Re: Random thought about the Rolex BLNR (black and blue GMT)

    Unless you're packing a crystal ball, there's really no way to tell what's going to be the sought after model twenty years from now. But you can probably guess that it *won't* be a model that's currently popular, like a GMTII or Submariner.

    If I had to guess, I would say the production model that has the greatest chance of appreciation is the modern Explorer II. And I say that for two reasons: 1) because the GMTII price and popularity is climbing, I would think a lot of folks are looking at the EXPII as a cheaper alternative for a GMT function (not to mention it isn't as blingy as the GMTII); and 2) it is the only model right now with maxi-hands. Now, I imagine most folks would say they *hate* the maxi-hands...and that's kind of the point. That's part of what makes it fly under the radar.

    My other guess would be for bi-metal watches to make a comeback. It's an aesthetic that comes and goes as the idea of wealth as something to be celebrated waxes and wanes. So right now, for example, I've seen bi-metal Daytona go for $11K on the grey market (several thousand below MSRP) and ceramic Daytona going for $18-22K on the grey market (several thousand over MSRP). So again, people who want a Daytona and don't have a bugaboo about gold can pick up a Daytona at a bargain, relatively speaking. That pendulum eventually is going to swing in the other direction. Not to the double or triple the price of a Newman Daytona, but I would guess a healthy margin.

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    Re: Random thought about the Rolex BLNR (black and blue GMT)

    Quote Originally Posted by Likestheshiny View Post
    Sorry, but no. The PN Daytona is popular now because it was unpopular when it was first released. No one wanted it, so few were made and even fewer were kept in nice shape. Items that are popular from the start never become "big ticket" collectibles because plenty of people have them and many of those are well-maintained.

    Indeed. I read somewhere in the years they were produced, which wasn't long, only 1 out of 15 Daytonas got ordered with the singer style dial. Most came with the regular rolex dial. So they are quite rare. I can't imagine the BLNR ever reaching the same heights. It would have to be an unpopular model that as severely underappreciated. Nothing appears to fit that bill IMO. Because the unpopular models, are unpopular for a reason, they don't look good.

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    Re: Random thought about the Rolex BLNR (black and blue GMT)

    On 30 years maybe nobody will be wearing watches, you will have a computer implanted in your head.

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    Re: Random thought about the Rolex BLNR (black and blue GMT)

    To me, the BLNR would be one of the least likely Rolex to skyrocket, unless it gets discontinued soon.
    Last edited by slcbbrown; May 31st, 2018 at 01:41. Reason: spellig

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    Re: Random thought about the Rolex BLNR (black and blue GMT)

    While I would say it's not very likely to skyrocket, the Rolex market is crazy. I don't think many predicted the heights that the prices are reaching for pieces now. 10-15 years ago Subs and GMTs were under $3K, all day long and basically the sage advice at that time was "buy the newest one you can afford" which is what we all did. We did that in the Porsche 911 world too....some advice that was! We should have bought the cheapest, oldest, most beat to hell Rolex...then we'd be rolling in it now.

    That said I think the new GMTs are pretty high production, won't patina much, and are pretty late to the party.
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