Real threats to future luxury watch value and appreciation.
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  1. #1
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    Real threats to future luxury watch value and appreciation.

    I'm curious to opinions on real threats to future luxury watch value and appreciation.

    In another thread a member argued that in the future technology like smartwatches poses a threat to future use and therefore value of luxury wristwatches.

    I disagree, arguing that the luxury wristwatch has evolved into an accessory item rather than a tool.

    In my opinion, the impact of volume and durability are much greater factors in affecting value retention and appreciation. The amount of durable luxury wristwatches being produced by so many brands will IMO at a certain point inevitably lead to market saturation.

    I'm eager to hear your opinions on the subject. Please discuss.
    Last edited by T1meout; September 26th, 2015 at 17:46.

  2. #2
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    Re: Real threats to future luxury watch value and appreciation.

    It seems to me a bigger and more permanent threat is the declining number of competent watchmakers. Haute horology might come in and out of style, but if it can't be maintained it's moot.

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    Re: Real threats to future luxury watch value and appreciation.

    I'm sure pocket watch manufacturers thought the same of the emerging wrist watch industry. The value of pocket watches now is often its melt value... Smart watches are in their infancy, but who knows where they'll be in 10, 20 or 30 years.
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    Re: Real threats to future luxury watch value and appreciation.

    Like I said in the other thread, smartwatches will replace regular watches. Whatever cons you say about smartwatches will be remedied in time if not within a few years. Besides the durability and service cost it'll be silly just for the sake of jewelry gentlemen need to wear a watch made of precious metal or mechanical guts. For those wanting luxury will definitely be provided by case makers. I foresee the Swiss won't sit still and will partner with LG, Huawei, or whichever tech company wanting to create a line of real luxury watches. I for one is willing to wear a JLC or Jeanrichard case with an upgradeable watch module from those guys. Swiss aesthetics and current tech from the best manufacturers. Better yet if they can agree on a standard case size to interchange. But no I'm dreaming. Back to the topic, given the future popularity of smartwatches that are honestly more convenient than your bulky phones, it will replace a lot of tools including mechanical watches thus the loss of value in resale.
    Last edited by Veda; September 26th, 2015 at 18:03.

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    Re: Real threats to future luxury watch value and appreciation.

    I think that there is a real threat to the entry level affordables segment of the market. As a significant share of these buyers find something else 'cool' to buy instead of a mechanical watch, sales will suffer. I believe that the mid high to high end of the market is fairly secure, due to these purchases being largely made based on an appreciation for watches by collectors or an appreciation for the prestige associated with the purchase. In either case, the traditions associated with watchmaking and these brands themselves will drive their own market.
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    Re: Real threats to future luxury watch value and appreciation.

    I agree w/Camguy- it's insane how few people get into watch repair as opposed to how many watches are being produced. I am looking forward to attending the AWCI convention next week in Kansas City, there are approx 125-130 people going, which is a fantastic turnout for our group and it's looking like it's going to be a great time. Still, in a country of 300+ million there are only a few thousand people that count themselves as watchmakers, and most of these people are over 50.

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    Re: Real threats to future luxury watch value and appreciation.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheWatchmaker View Post
    I agree w/Camguy- it's insane how few people get into watch repair as opposed to how many watches are being produced. I am looking forward to attending the AWCI convention next week in Kansas City, there are approx 125-130 people going, which is a fantastic turnout for our group and it's looking like it's going to be a great time. Still, in a country of 300+ million there are only a few thousand people that count themselves as watchmakers, and most of these people are over 50.
    If being a watchmaker or technician is a very monetarily rewarding job given the short supply then the chinese must be flocking to learn how to service mechanicals.

  9. #8
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    Re: Real threats to future luxury watch value and appreciation.

    I should qualify this by stating that the threat is to the affordable mechanical watch market share, not necessarily to the Swiss watch industry. Many current companies, particularly the larger ones like Swatch will likely get involved in producing their own smart/tech watches (and eventually, chips or implants). These companies will evolve, but I believe the days of seeing so many affordable mechanicals floating around Europe on people's wrists is probably numbered. Many of these wearers wear mechanicals to wear something different and cool. When functional technology moves in, there will be lots more options to fill this desire.
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    Re: Real threats to future luxury watch value and appreciation.

    It would be a very sad day for me personally if I'm left with a single choice of purchasing a digital,watch, I don't think I would do it
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    Re: Real threats to future luxury watch value and appreciation.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheWatchmaker View Post
    I agree w/Camguy- it's insane how few people get into watch repair as opposed to how many watches are being produced. I am looking forward to attending the AWCI convention next week in Kansas City, there are approx 125-130 people going, which is a fantastic turnout for our group and it's looking like it's going to be a great time. Still, in a country of 300+ million there are only a few thousand people that count themselves as watchmakers, and most of these people are over 50.
    Welcome to the forums!
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