Take a Wild Guess!
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  1. #1
    Member Rotosphere's Avatar
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    Take a Wild Guess!

    Or, if you have solid statistical information, provide it.

    What I'm curious about is the percentage of adult males in the first world you think have paid $1000 or more for a watch.

    Now among WUS members, I suspect the percentage is maybe 35, and in consequence, I think many of us probably consider such outlays for watches to be rather ordinary and common. But I would guess that among regular folk in the first world that percentage is something like 5 percent. Ergo, our four-figure, let alone five-figure watches are rather extraordinary.
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  2. #2
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    Re: Take a Wild Guess!

    Among WUS members...15-20%. Possibly less. Check Affordables. It's got a major following.

    And even at that, there's brands like Archimede, Stowa, Casio and Swatch basic (Hammy, Mido, Tissot, Certina) that offer excellent, solid pieces easily picked up for under $1k street.

    Real world, I suspect the 5% is probably high. Note, that's still a MASSIVE number. There's a nice article here:

    https://www.quora.com/What-percentag...oped-countries


    If we limit, for argument, to the US only...~ 320 million people. Males...call it half. 160M. Adult...call that roughly 60%? Not sure but that feels OK. Basically 100M. So, 5 million have watches worth $1k+? Probably not.

    http://www.fhs.swiss/scripts/getstat...s_180707_a.pdf

    225K watches sold in North America for one month...ok, but remember that's ALL watches at all price points. The total value was 190M francs...so less than $1k each. And that's including all those Rolexes and Omegas that are much higher. And people buying pricier watches are, I suspect, inherently more inclined to have more than one. I have 6...3 Nomos, a Ball, an Oris, and a Seiko Presage enamel. Plus my Hentschel coming in 3-4 weeks. I won't claim to be typical among people willing to spend like this on watches generally, but I also don't think I'm that far out near the edge in terms of quantity.
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  3. #3
    Member Hayseed Brown's Avatar
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    Re: Take a Wild Guess!

    My only day-to-day experience is with the US population, not the entire first world, but 5% seems way too high. I live in a nice suburb of NYC, and 1/20 adult males I meet do not have a $1,000+ watch on.

    I'd say it's like 0.15%.
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  5. #4
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    Re: Take a Wild Guess!

    Definitely less than 1%.
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    Re: Take a Wild Guess!

    Impressive analysis!
    -Noah

  7. #6
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    Re: Take a Wild Guess!

    You can bump that number up a bit as I just bought my first 1k plus watch. Damned WUS!!!
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  8. #7
    Member Rotosphere's Avatar
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    Re: Take a Wild Guess!

    Quote Originally Posted by sailon01 View Post
    You can bump that number up a bit as I just bought my first 1k plus watch. Damned WUS!!!
    Yeah, I crashed that barrier for the first time, not once but twice a few weeks ago. I suppose that's why the topic is on my mind.
    sailon01 likes this.
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  9. #8
    Member Chris Stark's Avatar
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    Re: Take a Wild Guess!

    I would say it's less than 1%. Doesn't sound like much but that's still something like 70 million people in the world.
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  10. #9
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    Re: Take a Wild Guess!

    Quote Originally Posted by IllCommunication View Post
    Definitely less than 1%.
    I go to 2nd and 3rd world countries often. No watches other than on corrupt officials and they are probably replicas.

    Replicas dominate in Asia as people love fake brands. I see loads of digital and quartz in SA along with Orients in Brazil. A very popular watch there but not =$1000US.


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  11. #10
    Member timefleas's Avatar
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    Re: Take a Wild Guess!

    Easily less than 1%. I see a LOT of people in my line of work, and I do look at their watches our of curiosity, and have so far seen maybe three watches that cost more than $1K (a Sinn, a Tag and a higher end Seiko), out of the several thousand that I have seen in recent memory.

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