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Bad time to buy?

3K views 18 replies 16 participants last post by  keto9 
#1 ·
Hi, just registered on this site after lurking for a while. Have a question regarding the timing of purchasing a new (to me) Rolex.

My only "nice" watch is a 5 yr old Omega SMP that I wear most every day. It's been a good year and looking to pick up something new. I've always planned on picking up a Speedy Pro but have also been looking at Rolex. Maybe Explorer I or a Sub or even GMT. Back when I purchased the SMP used Subs were more $$ but not crazy. Now I see them selling for near retail, at least for ceramic bezel and I understand some models are out of stock for a while. I was in Honolulu recently at the Rolex boutique and they basically had no stock other than the classic dress watches and really expensive models. I did try on the new Air King and it was nice but not sure I love it as much as the Exp I.

So my stupid question is: with the current economy, record stock market, etc is this just a bad time to buy a Rolex or will prices just continue up? Basically if the economy gets worse or markets crash will there be an influx of used newer Rolexes hit the market or are they pretty much immune to that (if you can afford one, dips in the economy don't affect you). I tried looking for price trends back to 2007/2008 but don't find much other than they are much more expensive in the past few years. Not that I am hoping to make this some great investment but buying at the top of the market is usually a bad idea for most everything.

I can pick up a new Speedy Pro for $3500 or less which is very similar to a few years ago and I think a good deal. But I probably won't buy another expensive watch for a couple years. For Rolex I can get a newish to brand new Air King for $53-5700 or used Exp I for $6K. Or do I just hunt down a Sub or GMT and pay retail knowing that I will eventually want one and they will continue to go up in price.

I understand this is all speculation and nobody can predict the future but if you have been collecting expensive watches for a while you might have some insights. Thanks for any advice, I appreciate it!
 
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#2 ·
I think you've identified the key issues. Nobody knows where the market is going but we all know where it's been
and that suggests it could be a bubble. I want another one but I won't pay these prices.

The only issue you've overlooked is the rise in used inventories of the big internet sellers. It suggests to me that sales
are slowing. Perhaps reluctance to pay maintenance costs is increasing trade-ins and slowing sales of 10 year old watches.

At these prices I suggest you buy only the watch you really want. I wouldn't recommend a compromise because of price because
it'll potentially have you selling and that could be during the market pullback. If you are keeping it forever it might make sense to
get it now and start enjoying it rather than waiting for a sell-off.

All the best. John
 
#3 ·
I’ve never looked at Watches as currency....and I think they are a high priced, unnecessary, luxury item.
You can usually follow luxury item sales directly linked to the health of the economy.
Instead, I simply assess my personal finances at any given time and make a decision to either buy or not buy.
In 35 years I’ve never seen Rolex’s prices go down.
If you don’t plan on flipping and you wait long enough, you’ll get your money back someday if you sell.
 
#4 ·
My advice is to purchase the best Rolex that you can afford and are willing to spend money on, that you will enjoy wearing regularly.
 
#5 ·
I think Rolex watches are fairly recession proof. Even when the economy tanks you don't see Rolex slashing prices, "Buy your Sub now 80% off, everything must go..!?

Buy a watch you love and keep it. By the time it is ready for the first service, we'll have already have had the Trump Recession, and a new president, and the economy will be bouncing back. You'll be able to trade or sell your Rolex easily, be it a Sub, GMT or Explorer. All three are popular choices, the Sub probably being the most bullet proof in terms of demand.

The only risk factor is when the Trump Recession hits, the used market may soften a little, but it will come back. A Rolex is a luxury item for people who have better than average resources.

With your logic, you could wait around for years and never get the piece you want for fear of the market or a product update from Rolex etc. If you have the money, do it as soon as you find the piece you love.
 
#7 ·
The way I see it, Rolex price hikes are likely to slow but they will not go down anytime soon. The Rolex brand has always been desired and that is not likely to change. Desireability is what keeps value up.

Years ago when starting my business I ran into financial difficulties and took my late 90's Rolex Explorer 1 to a used watch dealer hoping for some quick cash. I was naively hoping to recoup my initial cost but was surprised when I was offered 30% up from what I paid, and that was in economic recession. You may not get that now but yes, get a Rolex if the thought of stored value is important to you.
 
#8 ·
I'm probably going against the grain here but I would say yes, right now is a terrible time to buy. It seems like all Rolex sport models are going for about 1k more than they were just 5 months ago.

I bought a new subc date for 7.5k. Now they are going for $8.5k.

I paid 8.8k for a new BLNR from an AD. Now I see them going for $9.5-9.8k.

And then there's the Hulk. I'm seeing some listed at over 10k!?!?!

Yeah, I'd say it's a bad time.


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#9 ·
No one knows for sure, it's all speculation, on that note my thoughts...

... Brand new prices will not come down, they may stagnate but highly doubt they will (ever?) come down. Second hand is a different story, but the good news here is that popular models tend to hold their value very well.

Don't buy a mainstream Rolex model in the hope of making money on it any time soon (unless you happen to become famous), sure they will hold their value and then some time in the future as prices for new Rolex's go up then so does the second hand value, so a well maintained piece should get close to or more than was originally paid for it, but that may be decades down the line. Buy it to wear it, and take some comfort in the fact that a Rolex holds it value like no other luxury watch brand ;)
 
#10 ·
I agree with you. But these GM dealers are setting their prices a thousand dollars more than retail. This has got to be due to supply and demand where rolex is limiting supply. I would wait til supply meets demand and then pick up a lightly used model. IMO some of these GM dealers are asking laughable prices and taking advantage of the market. I'd rather just wait it out until there's more supply

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#11 ·
GM works by either a common piece being made available at a reduced price, or a not so common piece being made available at an increased price. I would never pay the latter, being happy to put my money with a trusted AD, go on the waiting list and pay the MSRP set by Rolex. I would however do the former (ie pay a reduced price for a more common piece).

You are right, GM is taking advantage of the rarer pieces, and folks are paying the premium, sure Rolex are well aware of this and may even be participants in the game.
 
#17 ·
Yeah I started looking for a 14060 sub in May and there were plenty of $4300-5000 in good shape most of them w/o b&p. The nice ones with b&p and all accessories were $5-6K. The prices I'm seeing now are $500-1000 more and this was just 7 months ago.

I did find one last month on Craigslist. Good shape, U series, lightly polished, had box and accessories but no warranty paper. Confirmed authenticity and did the transaction at a Rolex AD for $4500. My guess for the future is if you can find one now at a reasonable price it will likely at least hold it's value going forward.
 
#19 ·
Steep curve up on many models old and new in the past 2-3 months. On another forum it was suggested and historical that 2-3 months after Christmas normally sees some pricing relief. Makes sense to me. I’m kinda sorta in the market but seeing 1680s $1000-1500 up short term gives me pause.
 
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