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Grey Market

4K views 68 replies 23 participants last post by  canwd 
#1 ·
Prices are being dropped by 3-5k on SS models at re-sellers here in Montreal , anybody else experiencing this ?
 
#2 ·
Not here in the US, at least not on the references I pay attention to like the BLNR, BLRO, and 500C.

For the past three years, at the end of Summer prices dip in September and October, then rise again in time for Christmas in mid-November and December, and then go to their low point of the year every January and February. Baselworld in March creates new buzz at which point prices rise and top off again in June. The price fluctuation on the drops is only $1000 to $1500.

This seems to be the grey market price cycle were in right now.
 
#5 · (Edited)
Not here in the US, at least not on the references I pay attention to like the BLNR, BLRO, and 500C.

For the past three years, at the end of Summer prices dip in September and October, then rise again in time for Christmas in mid-November and December, and then go to their low point of the year every January and February. Baselworld in March creates new buzz at which point prices rise and top off again in June. The price fluctuation on the drops is only $1000 to $1500.

This seems to be the grey market price cycle were in right now.
Very true.
I'm not a fan of the gray market, but this holds water.
August/ September has always been the best time to buy used watches, or anything else for that matter.
Many with loose change are spending it on vacations this time of year.
To the OP's inquiry, I have not seen much of a fluctuation as far as Rolex models this side of the pond. [emoji2369] In fact I have seen a rise in models like the BLRO, which if memory serves correct, you could buy gray over here for 14 to 15K just a few months ago.
 
#8 ·
It makes no difference now on scarcity of new stock. It isn’t scarce. People know that the watches are still being made and either don’t have the means or are unwilling to pay these prices. Stock at greys is not moving like it did, fact. Sure there is always someone who can and is willing but not the new breed of hobbyist or speculator type flipper. Prices are too rich for them.
 
#9 ·
If it’s happening then it couldn’t have come at a better time. I will look forward to the time that watches are available at ADs at SRP at the very least.

This side of the pond, resellers stocks are not moving as I see the same pieces still and in some cases being recycled in terms of posting for sale.


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#10 · (Edited)
[HR][/HR]
If it's happening then it couldn't have come at a better time. I will look forward to the time that watches are available at ADs at SRP at the very least.

This side of the pond, resellers stocks are not moving as I see the same pieces still and in some cases being recycled in terms of posting for sale.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
this
 
#14 ·
I’m seeing GM dealers use the same dumb move over and over again. They put up the same watch for sale on WatchRecon with the old price crossed out and a newer and considerably higher price shown, trying to play on FOMO. Then a week later the same watch comes up for sale with the pricing the other way around - the higher price crossed out and the previous lower ‘bargain’ price shown. And this keeps getting repeated.
I guess they’re fishing for first time casual impulse buyers in both cases because it’s such a transparently dumb move for anyone seriously shopping for a piece.
 
#15 ·
I'm seeing GM dealers use the same dumb move over and over again. They put up the same watch for sale on WatchRecon with the old price crossed out and a newer and considerably higher price shown, trying to play on FOMO. Then a week later the same watch comes up for sale with the pricing the other way around - the higher price crossed out and the previous lower 'bargain' price shown. And this keeps getting repeated.
I guess they're fishing for first time casual impulse buyers in both cases because it's such a transparently dumb move for anyone seriously shopping for a piece.
Paulsky, remember though mate, there are plenty of dumb buyers who fall for this 'scam'. I wouldn't fall for it though, because my wife wouldn't let me, and she wears my trousers.
 
#18 ·






Hard to believe it's been 10 months since this watch came into my life, its first photos above.

Here on our 10 month anniversary, God bless you, BLRO. And God bless the grey dealer that made it possible.
 
#25 ·
I've noticed some slight corrections lately but not enough for me to consider any move to the grey market. Gmt's are strong even though the new Blnr took a slight dip, the Chnr is still @ 25% over MSRP. I've been eyeing 5 digits Gmt's as well and finally with a little good timing pulled the trigger a week ago on a great example and very good deal that I was able to see first locally. I dont see prices falling much more or anytime soon with the holidays approaching.

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#26 ·
I've noticed some slight corrections lately but not enough for me to consider any move to the grey market. Gmt's are strong even though the new Blnr took a slight dip, the Chnr is still @ 25% over MSRP. I've been eyeing 5 digits Gmt's as well and finally with a little good timing pulled the trigger a week ago on a great example and very good deal that I was able to see first locally. I dont see prices falling much more or anytime soon with the holidays approaching.
So many desirable Rolex SS models hold their grey values and/or increase in value over the course of the decades that one has to ask- why not go grey today if you had extremely strong confidence that in 2024 your watch would be worth 10% more than you paid a grey for it and by 2029 it was worth 20% more?

If the issue is money and Rolex SS sport models historically increase over time, what's stopping you?
 
#27 ·
I think to assume that prices will continue to increase from these lofty numbers is foolhardy. Whether or not the US will enter recession, the rest of the World certainly appears like it will and more importantly China's growth is slowing dramatically and Hong Kong may end up in flames before long. None of that bodes well for watches continuing well over MSRP without some reversion to teh mean.
 
#29 ·
There are so few desirable Rolex SS watches and so many millions of people who want them, a worldwide economic pullback isn't going to change a thing. Perhaps instead of 2,000,000 people on waitlists it'll reduce to 500,000 on waitlists. Rolex only makes 5,000 or so Pepsi's, Hulk's, Daytona's, etc. per year. There are far more people immune to a recession than there are Rolex SS watches.

That's why its time that people come to the realization that the grey market is the market and if they want to save some money on a hot SS Rolex the time to buy is now. Prices only go up.
 
#31 ·
Consensus around the world/internet (not just US) seems to be some softening (watches I track, many other sales forums and channels commenting on this). Might be seasonal, but let’s hope not. I guess we’ll come back in September 2020 and see who was right.
 
#36 ·
As much as Greys want the hype to last so they can sell high to buyers who staunchly defend their high priced purchases, both would likely look foolish should prices go back to reasonable level. Hence the need to keep the dream alive.
Greys: They are small businessmen and need to move inventory. That's how you know the Rolex SS models are selling at the prices published for the past few years. They need to turn them quickly to buy more.

Buyers: We just wanted our watches and didn't want to wait. So we paid a bit more. We don't care what they're worth because we aren't selling them. We are wearing them. That's what Rolex enthusiasts do.
 
#40 ·
There are 450+ of Sub Hulk, 3500 GMT Master II on Chrono24. [emoji3061]
It is known that the majority of those listings aren't real. They are a combination of 1) a single dealer creating dozens of listings for the same watch and 2) dozens of dealers without the watch who list it in the hopes of making a sale and then running out and sourcing one. Chrono24 is not a credible source on grey inventory.
 
#43 ·
My grey doesn’t as his core business is jewellery and his prices are at a lower level than most. Shifts a watch a week but not blro or blnr, they’ve been hanging around a while. They are hardly flying out at this rate. I’m seeing more greys holding than selling. I’m out of this arena anyway as I’m after a good 16600 or 16660 but happy hunting one and all.
 
#61 ·
What happened was.... people finely realized they were being manipulated by hype and speculation. Having grey market dealers take advantage of them. So, sales will slow and inventory sits and needs to turn. Indeed very nice/quality timepieces are highly desired. But all these hyped pieces are available at ADs. Would guess the grey market prices will continue to drop. But never know. Regardless of how you purchase, finding and obtaining your desired watch is really neat experience.
 
#66 ·
In the last 20 years, Rolex has manufactured and shipped 20,000,000 watches.

In the last 3 years, Rolex has manufactured and shipped 10,000 Daytona's.

If just 10% of people that bought a Rolex in the last 20 years wanted a Daytona, Rolex has shipped enough to satisfy 0.005% of them.

That's five thousandths of a percent.

It's not hype. The world is a big place and there aren't enough watches.
 
#62 ·
What can I say? That muffled thud you heard was the sound of a steel Five Hunnit explode past $30,000 at the biggest, most prestigious grey in Europe. Its there, right now, for a tick over thirty, it'll be gone in a week, and they don't move more than a few % in price even for a wheelbarrow client.
 
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