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My AD List Theory and Experiences

2K views 29 replies 16 participants last post by  One-Seventy 
#1 ·
I just visited the ADs in the Denver area in person to ask to be placed on a waiting list for some professional references.

Each visit was a little different.

First AD I spoke with the rep and it seemed when a new shipment comes in the team of sales reps has a meeting with their manager and they discuss who deserves to be called. I seemed to get an interest when I mentioned my collection, the fact I was a RedBar member, and a struggling YouTube watch channel enthusiast. He wrote my name down on his card stock form and jotted "RedBar" next to my name. So do I have a better shot proving I'm not just a guy off the street?

Second AD took my name and address and put me in their computer database on the spot. We did chat a bit. I actually gave him some info on a Speedmaster they had just placed for sale in the pre-owned section. He thought the crystal was sapphire, when it was hesalite. It was a good chat, but I'm not sure if I'll be remembered or called soon just by being entered into the computer database.

Third AD took only my name and phone number down on her hard paper stock info form. She told me each sales rep is given watches and they get to call their own customers. She said they give the people a phone call and only hold the watch for 24 hours. After that, she moves on to the next name on her list. Again, we had a nice talk and I explained I'd be walking out with their Tudor Pelagos LHD if I wasn't saving for my first Rolex.

So! 3 ADs, 3 slightly different "systems" of getting put on their waiting lists. If I had to bet, I'm guessing my best chances are going to be with AD#1.

I am glad I physically went into each store and struck up conversations with the reps. If you can't take the time to show up in person, it just shows you're not that interested.

My theory is you have a better chance for a call if you show up in person, have a nice discussion about how watches are your passion, and then when it comes time the reps just might remember you might be more deserving than others.

Fingers crossed.
 
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#9 ·
It really isn't that complicated: each AD is independent, and chooses how to distribute their inventory as best serves their business needs, and there is no magic formula. Given that the AD has no discretion on pricing and only limited stock, they find creative ways to maximize the value of each sale. Maybe you'll get lucky and a salesperson will see you as a major potential client even with no purchase history; more likely not. Just saying that there is practically no incentive to sell to just some guy off the street, especially a non-local who isn't likely to return.

And Rolex is hardly the first consumer product for which this has happened. Compare it to sale of tickets for an in-demand sporting event, like the Super Bowl, World Series, or Champion's League Final. The ticketing organization is limited in selling for "face value," so they prioritize customers who they want to cultivate for future revenue, or to reward for past purchases: e.g., season ticket holders, major supporters, family and friends. Maybe you can get lucky and purchase a face value ticket directly from a club, but with no history and no connection, don't bet on it. Everyone else can go on StubHub or the secondary (gray) market to buy their tickets.
 
#11 ·
Thanks. I think the other thing that people overlook is that by not expanding supply to the AD's, Rolex is protecting its existing customers and owners. If they were to triple their production tomorrow and have SS models in every AD's window, the value of those already in circulation would crash to well below MSRP, angering and disappointing customers who (1) believed that their watch was something a little more special than a G-Shock; and (2) expected it to hold some value. It might result in a spike in immediate business, but at significant harm for the mid- and long-term, as Rolex will have squandered any chance at developing all-important repeat customers.
 
#12 ·
I think showing genuine interest and knowledge of the product certainly helps. It's probably the second most effective impression to make, the first being that of a moneybags that they can milk with plenty of diamond and precious metal products.
 
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#14 ·
I did the same thing this past weekend in my area, went to 3 different AD,s and got pretty much the same response. One though just flat out told me they have no lost and you just have to keep coming back till you see one in the case. I find that hard to believe I think they just have a lot of regulars and they are all spoken for for a while. The others said each sales person has their own list and they choose who it goes to if/when they get one. Been waiting close to a year so far for my no date sub. Thinking of giving up soon and getting a seamaster or a couple Tudors instead.
 
#15 ·
If they're lucky, the typical AD is getting 20 Submariners a year. Each AD has 5 salespeople who, in turn, each have 20+ contacts of big spending, loyal, local customers that have come to them specifically over the years.

This is why you are not going to get a Submariner in the current Rolex climate. Go preowned or go grey and you can have your watch by the weekend.
 
#16 · (Edited)
In many country , if you gonna buy rolex , the AD want you to bundle the Rolex watches with another watches they have in store like TUdor , breitling , etc whatever they hold the brand which not come with cheap brand , also maybe jewelry , and also you should make first purchase maybe Tudor ... then buy rolex bundling with breitling or tagheuer maybe ....
I actually buy tudor gmt first , and then they offered me rolex submariner two tone and three weeks after that submariner black date ...but I refused them because I am not ready yet to make purchase ... this happens in just one month
 
#17 ·
Well, I'll continue to save up to pay with "watch money" and not dip into savings. If I get the AD call, everything goes out the window and I'll take out a loan from a Pay Day Loan store if I have to. Just kidding about Pay Day, but you get the drift.

If my watch savings gets high enough to buy a grey market 114060, then I might pull the trigger. Damn it's hard! Spend $9K for a used 114060 when you know a phone call for a brand new $7.5K could be around the corner? Dang it! Why couldn't I be in this watch collecting hobby 5 years ago?

By the way, when did this Rolex Supply Crisis begin? It's almost as devastating as the Quartz Crisis! Well, at least to me. :)
 
#19 ·
If my watch savings gets high enough to buy a grey market 114060, then I might pull the trigger. Damn it's hard! Spend $9K for a used 114060 when you know a phone call for a brand new $7.5K could be around the corner? Dang it! Why couldn't I be in this watch collecting hobby 5 years ago?
Spend the $9K on the used 6-digit. Wear it. Enjoy it. Love it. Years from now when you finally get the call, sell the new 6-digit for $12K. Or keep the new 6-digit and sell the old one for what you paid for it. I'll let you in on a little secret- you never lose money on a Submariner. Mine has increased in value $7K over the $3.5K I paid for it in the past 18 years. But don't tell anyone.

By the way, when did this Rolex Supply Crisis begin? It's almost as devastating as the Quartz Crisis! Well, at least to me. :)
First of all, it's not a "Rolex Supply Crisis". It's merely Rolex making some great, great looking new updated versions of their very best references. It happened over the course of a decade, happened rather slowly if you don't step back, but all the Rolex classics have been modernized with larger case sizes, ceramic bezels, more powerful movements, more functional bracelets. So not only do you have potential new buyers in their 20's and 30's interested, but all of us in our 40's and 50's who own the older models suddenly feel compelled to upgrade.

So for what I'll call "The Great Rolex Line Redesign Explosion" there were earlier signs, but the real firestarter was the introduction of the Ceramic Daytona in March 2016 followed by the introduction of the GMT Pepsi in March 2018. Those two references caused an incredible surge of interest and demand and Rolex just doesn't make enough, just a few thousand a year, probably a million interested buyers searching the globe for 5,000 or 8,000 total units of those two unicorns.

From there, people in December 2018 said "Hey, if I can't get a GMT Pepsi, I'll take a GMT Batman". And then there was a rumor that Batman was going to be discontinued. Then Batman prices exploded. And the buzz around the Daytona, the Pepsi, and the Batman overtook social media, suddenly anyone into watches that didn't have one of those three by February 2019 was an Instagram outcast, a Facebook loser, so it spread to older models like the Hulk and then it bloomed over when people wanted Submariner's and Explorers, and now even Datejust's are an endangered species. Watches that no one warmed to like the Milgauss and Yacht-Master are being bought up as placeholders while people wait on made-up non-existent lists.

That's your summary. Question is, what are you going to do about it?
 
#27 ·
Although the current shortage of Rolex inventory is a tale that's long and complicated, the end result is very simple:

If you want a Rolex, you pay fair market value. If you don't pay fair market value, you don't get a Rolex.
 
#26 ·
It definitely varies by AD. The AD I bought my YM40 from said “list is a bad word”. I said OK, if you get a SS sub, exp I, or DJ 41 in these combos in, give me a call and I’ll be by in an hour or two with cash. I haven’t received a call. I don’t care enough to chase the models I like. If I happen to see one I want when I occasionally pop in an AD because I’m in the area, I’ll buy it.
 
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