No surprise: new market powering the vintage one
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  1. #1
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    No surprise: new market powering the vintage one

    So the price of unicorns - basically any SS sports Rolex - is rocketing to 300% of MSRP. Next year, it'll be 500%. No problem. Pay to play. OP39s are now N/A in black and white without a premium, and of course a used Submariner costs $8,000 upwards (8 grand getting you a bad one, possibly missing parts, and definitely no box or papers).

    Look at the used DJ market. For every one tossed unwanted and thrown into a cupboard, then sold for peanuts at a thrift store, there's a good one looked after with the original packaging and sales material. Three years ago one of these would cost you no more than $2,500 in spare change. Now even at the highest-turnover dealer in the USA, which is the cheapest place in the world to acquire luxury, it's $4k. Next year it'll be 5. Then 6. Then...

    I don't really care too much about the characteristics of the watch itself but it's a brilliant investment strategy. I myself am looking to pick up a 1680x - once completists have their 5517, 5513, 6538, 14060, 116610, they'll go after the transitional category, and I'll be there, picking 'em off from the trees!

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    Re: No surprise: new market powering the vintage one

    Good luck with that.
    OedipusFlex, jsohal and Gunnar_917 like this.

  3. #3
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    Re: No surprise: new market powering the vintage one



    The watches to buy from a future-investment standpoint are:

    14060
    16610

    Undervalued and about to become the birthyear watches of choice for those 20-40 year olds born between 1979 and 1999.
    Triton9 and The Thomas J like this.
    Rolex Daytona 116500 | Rolex GMT BLRO | Rolex Submariner 5513 | Rolex Explorer 1016 | Rolex Submariner 16610 | Rolex Datejust 126334 | Man Of Rolex™ Member

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  5. #4
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    Re: No surprise: new market powering the vintage one

    Rising tide lifts all boats?
    sportura and 5959HH like this.
    "Every cat and dog deserves a loving home with a GS Tiffany Snowflake TM."

  6. #5
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    Re: No surprise: new market powering the vintage one

    Quote Originally Posted by BigSeikoFan View Post
    Rising tide lifts all boats?
    Did you buy your boat from an authorized dealer? Or did you have to go to the grey market?
    Rolex Daytona 116500 | Rolex GMT BLRO | Rolex Submariner 5513 | Rolex Explorer 1016 | Rolex Submariner 16610 | Rolex Datejust 126334 | Man Of Rolex™ Member

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  7. #6
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    Re: No surprise: new market powering the vintage one

    Good point about 90s-on Subs being in the sights of the 20-40 millennial market. However, my thinking is that market information is already factored into this class which is why the price of a used, normal Sub (no date, just Sub) is about the same as a new issue. The market has priced in future rises leading to marked capital value uplift whereas the limited-production transitional class is trading at routine multiples compared to (1)14060 and 16610, both of which have extended issue dates. Simple macro hypotheses lead to the assertion that transitional issues are undervalued on a volume basis and the resulting illiquidity as investors seek to complete their portfolios will, in a rising market, put the seller on the front foot. So I'm going long on 1680xx stock!

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    Re: No surprise: new market powering the vintage one

    Quote Originally Posted by sportura View Post
    The watches to buy from a future-investment standpoint are:

    14060
    16610

    Undervalued and about to become the birthyear watches of choice for those 20-40 year olds born between 1979 and 1999.
    Haven't these also come up greatly recently? The 14060 costs twice what they were in 2016 and are usually priced above 16610s. 16610s are more liquid though and I find their prices to have fluctuated a little.

  9. #8
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    Re: No surprise: new market powering the vintage one

    Quote Originally Posted by One-Seventy View Post
    Good point about 90s-on Subs being in the sights of the 20-40 millennial market. However, my thinking is that market information is already factored into this class which is why the price of a used, normal Sub (no date, just Sub) is about the same as a new issue. The market has priced in future rises leading to marked capital value uplift whereas the limited-production transitional class is trading at routine multiples compared to (1)14060 and 16610, both of which have extended issue dates. Simple macro hypotheses lead to the assertion that transitional issues are undervalued on a volume basis and the resulting illiquidity as investors seek to complete their portfolios will, in a rising market, put the seller on the front foot. So I'm going long on 1680xx stock!
    Can you translate that into plain English?
    Paulsky likes this.

  10. #9
    Member sportura's Avatar
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    Re: No surprise: new market powering the vintage one

    Quote Originally Posted by Estilo View Post
    Haven't these also come up greatly recently? The 14060 costs twice what they were in 2016 and are usually priced above 16610s. 16610s are more liquid though and I find their prices to have fluctuated a little.
    Yes, but that's because of Rolexmania bringing up the prices on all SS Rolex models. On a relative basis, the 5-digit Sub's are the best value compared to the 4 and 6-digit references.

    Another prediction: Rolex Submariner 14060M's and 16610's from 2010 to 2012 with box & papers are going to be worth significant $ in the decades to come. Rolex transitioned to random serial numbers in that range and so the only way to know if you have a birthyear Submariner in the last days of the 5-digits is if the watch comes with papers showing a purchase and warranty activation in the year you were born. As a father of a 2012 son let me tell you, hunting down a date-verified Submariner in the secondary market is an absolute rarity, I've seen exactly 2 examples of 14060M's in the last 2 years I've been looking.
    5959HH likes this.
    Rolex Daytona 116500 | Rolex GMT BLRO | Rolex Submariner 5513 | Rolex Explorer 1016 | Rolex Submariner 16610 | Rolex Datejust 126334 | Man Of Rolex™ Member

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  11. #10
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    Re: No surprise: new market powering the vintage one

    Quote Originally Posted by 5959HH View Post
    Can you translate that into plain English?
    "There's (white) gold (around the lume plots of service replacement dials) in them thar hills!!"
    5959HH and Paulsky like this.

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