NOT the usual "Rolex value thread"
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  1. #1
    Member Panerol Forte's Avatar
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    NOT the usual "Rolex value thread"

    I've been here for more than a year, and I've seen countless threads speculating about Rolex value, which seems to be a trend not only on Rolex forums, but in Youtube videos too, echoing the forums clarcoyance (or is it the other way around?). I just saw this video made by a young British watch dealer, but don't be fooled by his age, I discovered him through Paul Thorpe who seems to think highly of him. This is the best market assessment I've seen so far. Enjoy


  2. #2
    Member Gunnar_917's Avatar
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    Re: NOT the usual "Rolex value thread"

    Interesting vid however what he says at the start of it (i.e the market is on 'hold') is something I read yesterday (admittedly from a second had dealer who does a daily email).

    It may be speculation but I tend to agree with what he said but time will tell whether it is correct (especially about those who panic bought watches in the name of 'investment')
    Brother of OoO


  3. #3
    Member Krish47's Avatar
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    Re: NOT the usual "Rolex value thread"

    very good assessment...
    Cheers
    Kris


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  5. #4
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    Re: NOT the usual "Rolex value thread"

    Agree 100% with everything he's said. People who think Rolex prices will plummet should look back at history, specifically around 2008-2009 when the last major recession hit.
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    Re: NOT the usual "Rolex value thread"

    Quote Originally Posted by Panerol Forte View Post
    I've been here for more than a year, and I've seen countless threads speculating about Rolex value, which seems to be a trend not only on Rolex forums, but in Youtube videos too, echoing the forums clarcoyance (or is it the other way around?). I just saw this video made by a young British watch dealer, but don't be fooled by his age, I discovered him through Paul Thorpe who seems to think highly of him. This is the best market assessment I've seen so far. Enjoy
    Super informative, and incidentally informs a few decisions I'm toying with at the moment.

    Thanks for sharing!

  7. #6
    Member Betterthere's Avatar
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    Re: NOT the usual "Rolex value thread"

    Thx

  8. #7
    Member SolarPower's Avatar
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    Re: NOT the usual "Rolex value thread"

    Let's see.
    What he said is market has 3 segments and this is true.
    Looking at them one by one like he did.
    1. Rolex new watch market. Nobody knows what Rolex will decide on the new watch pricing. It may go up, it may go down. Everyone is welcome to speculate, but there is no point to doing so IMO.
    2. Grey market. I agree with his prediction and think the prices will go down. Will they go down below new watch prices at ADs? He thinks not. I think very well may be. It depends on how deep are the pockets of the grey dealers to hold prices at diminishing sales through the pandemic. It may take not month but years to go through that, unfortunately.
    3. Second-hand market. It will stay on hold for a while. What would happen next depends on two factors IMO: a. How long the pandemic will go and b. How many Rolex owners own the Rolex watches while they really should had not as they barely afforded their collections. One can hold on to their watch indefinitely if they will never need to sell it for the money. If majority of the owners are in this category, then the prices will not move down at least not much. If, however, substantial part of the owners will need to sell something to go through tough times, we will see the second-hand Rolex prices going down.

    And BTW I can't understand why this type of discussions are being viewed as a deletion candidates. To me if an enthusiast is buying a watch or many watches to use, own and collect, whatever happens to the watch market pricing is not critical to enjoying the collections and less so for enjoying wearing the watches. So an intelligent theoretical discussion does not hurt, does it?

  9. #8
    Member Black5's Avatar
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    Re: NOT the usual "Rolex value thread"

    Quote Originally Posted by Panerol Forte View Post
    I've been here for more than a year, and I've seen countless threads speculating about Rolex value, which seems to be a trend not only on Rolex forums, but in Youtube videos too, echoing the forums clarcoyance (or is it the other way around?). I just saw this video made by a young British watch dealer, but don't be fooled by his age, I discovered him through Paul Thorpe who seems to think highly of him. This is the best market assessment I've seen so far. Enjoy

    Thanks PF,

    A pretty sensible and logical take on the situation. Should just post this link as an answer to all the pricing and investment threads...
    Krish47 likes this.
    SoOoO many watches, SoOoO little time...


  10. #9
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    Re: NOT the usual "Rolex value thread"

    Donít sell your watch right now, he says. Why not? Because youíll get slaked and the buyer will get a deal. Saying that the market is on hold is the same as saying itís dying or dead. Grey market prices have indeed come down, he says. These are luxury goods people can live without.

    Friends, no one ever could possibly have thought that crude oil would trade at negative prices. Zero was supposed to be the bottom. Well, seeing is believing:

    https://www.barchart.com/futures/quo...eractive-chart

    Donít believe anyone who says Rolex prices canít come down. Itís hard to make predictions, especially about the future.
    Persecki likes this.

  11. #10
    Member ProjectQuattro's Avatar
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    Re: NOT the usual "Rolex value thread"

    Quote Originally Posted by SolarPower View Post
    Let's see.
    What he said is market has 3 segments and this is true.
    Looking at them one by one like he did.
    1. Rolex new watch market. Nobody knows what Rolex will decide on the new watch pricing. It may go up, it may go down. Everyone is welcome to speculate, but there is no point to doing so IMO.
    2. Grey market. I agree with his prediction and think the prices will go down. Will they go down below new watch prices at ADs? He thinks not. I think very well may be. It depends on how deep are the pockets of the grey dealers to hold prices at diminishing sales through the pandemic. It may take not month but years to go through that, unfortunately.
    3. Second-hand market. It will stay on hold for a while. What would happen next depends on two factors IMO: a. How long the pandemic will go and b. How many Rolex owners own the Rolex watches while they really should had not as they barely afforded their collections. One can hold on to their watch indefinitely if they will never need to sell it for the money. If majority of the owners are in this category, then the prices will not move down at least not much. If, however, substantial part of the owners will need to sell something to go through tough times, we will see the second-hand Rolex prices going down.

    And BTW I can't understand why this type of discussions are being viewed as a deletion candidates. To me if an enthusiast is buying a watch or many watches to use, own and collect, whatever happens to the watch market pricing is not critical to enjoying the collections and less so for enjoying wearing the watches. So an intelligent theoretical discussion does not hurt, does it?
    I interpret the secondhand market for both watches and expensive/fun cars (my other expensive hobby) differently from how you do.

    My thought is, it isn't necessarily the sellers setting the value but rather the buyers. Some subset of Rolex owners will need to sell their watches due to economic hardship, sure, but I don't think that will be the market-setter. The value of anything is determined by what people are willing to pay for it, and THAT will likely be impacted by COVID for some time to come. Immediate economic impacts have already occurred and broader economic uncertainty may last for much longer.

    I think this will drive prices for most if not all luxury commodities down for a while. The length and severity will be determined by the longevity of the pandemic and how quickly the economy recovers once things start returning to normalcy.

    I think this is already borne out somewhat by prices and trade-in values for watches. Dealers will tell you outright that this is the case. Definitely the same for cars also if you look at places like BaT.

    Just my 2 cents, I'm not an economist.


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