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  1. #11
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    Re: Seiko NE88 Automatic Chronograph Movement

    Quote Originally Posted by guspech750 View Post
    I was hoping you would chime in. I appreciate your knowledge and wisdom. Thank you.


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    No worries. I hope I don't sound salty about it, because I'm not.

    I'm friendly with the owners of both Hemel and Straton, and so I know a bit about how well they did/do with these watches.

    Both made a case which could accommodate both the NE88 and an meca-quartz chrono, which allowed them to meet the case manufacturers' higher MOQs, but without having to order as many NE88's, which is good, because the lower-priced meca-quartz versions sell better.

    I think Hemel is sold out of the auto version of the new HFT20, which is great for Hemel, and probably makes people think he should have produced more, but they may not realize the lopsidedness of sales distribution across models and time, which often leads to the ironic result of lower-demand/lower-supply models being sold out first.

    Straton as a brand is all about chronos, so they sell more of them, but there again, the less costly meca-quartz versions are made/sold in greater numbers.

    Regardless of brand recognition, higher-priced models tend to sell in smaller numbers than lower-priced models, so you're always going to see fewer auto-chronos than quartz chronos or three-handers. But it creates additional challenges for micros especially, inasmuch as so many people will want a "brand name" when they're presented with what a well-made auto-chrono should reasonably cost. This is why most micros tend to stick with proven formulas for sales success.

    Personally, I would rather quickly sell 300-500 pieces of a ~$500 three-hander with a low return rate than stretch and struggle to sell as many $800-$1200 auto chronos, where I'd have more money tied up in inventory for a longer time, and a higher return rate. It's just less hassle. Mixing in some meca-quartz chronos doesn't change the picture enough to interest me more.


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  2. #12
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    Re: Seiko NE88 Automatic Chronograph Movement

    Quote Originally Posted by docvail View Post
    It's an expensive movement. If I wanted to make a >$1000 automatic chronograph, I'd use the NE88, absolutely, before I used an ETA chrono movement.

    I just don't feel like making a >$1000 automatic chronograph. It's hard enough to sell a $300-$700 three-hander and make a profit.

    There are some micro-brands making them, though. Just off the top of my head, I know Straton, Hemel, and TNT have all made NE88-equipped watches.
    are there many sub $700 auto-chronos? i'll be completely honest, i don't look for chronos that often. i'm a big fan of the large second sweep, and something about my OCD would want all of the chrono hands aligned. kind of like james may and his car vents.

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    Re: Seiko NE88 Automatic Chronograph Movement

    Quote Originally Posted by docvail View Post
    "Still, it's quite surprising that no one else thought about this or managed to pull it off until now..."

    Huh?

    Which part? The part where they make an automatic chronograph with the NE88, or the part where the startup makes almost no profit whatsoever on their Kickstarter project?

    Because (A), both of those have been done before, and (B), the first isn't that hard to pull off, while the second makes me wonder why anyone would want to pull it off.


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    Are you suggesting William L is not going to make any profit on the 499eur NE88 chrono?
    Then it is a good question why indeed they would offer it for that price.
    Could it be about brand recognition, moving upmarket or maybe proving to their supplier they can handle the volume?
    At the moment they only have 90 backers for the auto chrono, so even with a slim profit, it wouldn't make much sense.
    They also mention it's a limited edition of 999 pieces.
    I've seen the brand in high street shops, so maybe their distribution chain can easily handle that.

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  5. #14
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    Re: Seiko NE88 Automatic Chronograph Movement

    Quote Originally Posted by ne57rico View Post
    are there many sub $700 auto-chronos? i'll be completely honest, i don't look for chronos that often. i'm a big fan of the large second sweep, and something about my OCD would want all of the chrono hands aligned. kind of like james may and his car vents.
    It depends on what you think of as "many".

    There are some. Swatch makes some with that new movement which can't be serviced, and I'm sure there will always be the occasional blowout sale on old stock of the Victorinox this or the Hamilton that, which is another reason I don't like the idea of making an auto-chrono.

    I can already hear the wailing and gnashing of teeth, "How dare you ask over $500 for your micro-brand watch in PRE-ORDER! I can get a brand new AirBoss chrono with Valjoux 7750 on Amazon right now for less than $500!"

    Don't even get me started on Bulova, the king of the $500 Valjoux 7750, nor do you want me to begin ranting about the coming Fortis apocalypse, which will rain down $500 auto-chronos on the just and unjust alike. I don't want to be the guy trying to explain to all the internet "experts" why my watch with "only" a Japanese movement is $$800 in pre-order and why a $500 Fortis won't be supported by a warranty in 6 months, or why the NE88 is actually better than the v.7750.

    The NE88 isn't a cheap movement, and they don't produce or sell them in numbers as large as the Swiss auto-chrono movements, so you're not as likely to see them selling for under $700, unless you're seeing them in pre-order, or someone got in over their head on a bad idea, and is now blowing out unsold inventory (like Fortis).

    If I made an NE88 watch, it would have to retail for at least $1k, and that would be the absolute rock-bottom of the ideal range. It should really be more like $1200-$1500 for a good quality micro with that movement.

    Even a $700 auto-chrono isn't an easy sale. That's at the upper end of "affordable" for many micro-brands, and mechanical chronos cost more to service, which many people think about before making a purchase. Even if they don't plan to have one serviced, then they'd effectively be choosing to let the watch die at a certain point in the not-to-distant future, which can be a tough choice when the cost is over $500.

    And to make it all worse - the NE88 is chunky as hell. It's a beast of a movement, so there's no way to get one into a small watch with decent specs and not have proportions like a hockey puck. Spare me all the thin-wristed WIS complaining that I made it 42mm wide and 16mm thick.

    No thanks.

    Quote Originally Posted by chinchillasong View Post
    Are you suggesting William L is not going to make any profit on the 499eur NE88 chrono?
    Then it is a good question why indeed they would offer it for that price.
    Could it be about brand recognition, moving upmarket or maybe proving to their supplier they can handle the volume?
    At the moment they only have 90 backers for the auto chrono, so even with a slim profit, it wouldn't make much sense.
    They also mention it's a limited edition of 999 pieces.
    I've seen the brand in high street shops, so maybe their distribution chain can easily handle that.
    No, I said they'll make almost no profit. They may make some. Not much.

    First off, they've priced their project rewards in EUR, but their costs are almost certainly in USD, so they've got currency risk. If the EUR falls against the USD while their project is going, or during production, that will hurt them.

    Their "full retail" price of EUR 699 is $861.60 in today's dollars, which is about/at least 15% below market rate for most NE88 chronos. On KS, they're at $615-ish, INCLUDING shipping.

    Do their rewards "prices" include the VAT? That takes ~20% off the top, doesn't it? Kickstarter will take 5%, and the payments processor will take 3%. Shipping will likely average $25 per unit.

    Back out the 20% VAT that they'll pay on the declared costs when they import them into France, shipping costs to them from their factory, returns costs (higher for chronos)...

    Yeah, there isn't a lot of profit being made on that one. It's certainly less profit per unit, a slower inventory turn, and a lot more risk than I'd accept.

    Why would they do it?

    You'd have to ask them. But in observing this game for a while, I've seen all sorts of symptoms of people being allergic to money. Some guys are just desperate to launch a business and be able to tell people they own a watch company. Many have the truly awful notion that under-pricing their first product is a great way to "get the brand noticed", when in fact it's just lazy marketing. Laziness combined with desperation is not a recipe for success, or the beginning of a great story.

    999 is a big number, especially when many micros struggle to sell 300 pieces of anything. I'd be impressed if they can sell that many, at any price which isn't their total unit costs or less. Calling it "limited" is a bit of a brow-raiser for me, and leads me to question their sincerity, but that's just me, and I'm a natural cynic.

    The ones you see in high street shops are likely "on memo" - given to the shops on consignment, with any unsold pieces being sent back to the manufacturer.

    And people wonder why there aren't more automatic chronographs...
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  6. #15
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    Re: Seiko NE88 Automatic Chronograph Movement

    Quote Originally Posted by docvail View Post
    It depends on what you think of as "many".

    There are some. Swatch makes some with that new movement which can't be serviced, and I'm sure there will always be the occasional blowout sale on old stock of the Victorinox this or the Hamilton that, which is another reason I don't like the idea of making an auto-chrono.

    I can already hear the wailing and gnashing of teeth, "How dare you ask over $500 for your micro-brand watch in PRE-ORDER! I can get a brand new AirBoss chrono with Valjoux 7750 on Amazon right now for less than $500!"

    Don't even get me started on Bulova, the king of the $500 Valjoux 7750, nor do you want me to begin ranting about the coming Fortis apocalypse, which will rain down $500 auto-chronos on the just and unjust alike. I don't want to be the guy trying to explain to all the internet "experts" why my watch with "only" a Japanese movement is $$800 in pre-order and why a $500 Fortis won't be supported by a warranty in 6 months, or why the NE88 is actually better than the v.7750.

    The NE88 isn't a cheap movement, and they don't produce or sell them in numbers as large as the Swiss auto-chrono movements, so you're not as likely to see them selling for under $700, unless you're seeing them in pre-order, or someone got in over their head on a bad idea, and is now blowing out unsold inventory (like Fortis).

    If I made an NE88 watch, it would have to retail for at least $1k, and that would be the absolute rock-bottom of the ideal range. It should really be more like $1200-$1500 for a good quality micro with that movement.

    Even a $700 auto-chrono isn't an easy sale. That's at the upper end of "affordable" for many micro-brands, and mechanical chronos cost more to service, which many people think about before making a purchase. Even if they don't plan to have one serviced, then they'd effectively be choosing to let the watch die at a certain point in the not-to-distant future, which can be a tough choice when the cost is over $500.

    And to make it all worse - the NE88 is chunky as hell. It's a beast of a movement, so there's no way to get one into a small watch with decent specs and not have proportions like a hockey puck. Spare me all the thin-wristed WIS complaining that I made it 42mm wide and 16mm thick.

    No thanks.
    understood, and thank you. i saw on another thread a comparison being drawn between the poster's perceived value of a microbrand watch and a major brand, in this case it was a hamilton. when i questioned the validity of that comparison they immediately recoiled. i think there's a weird false equivalency between micros and affordability. at any rate i really appreciate the feedback, and with my 7" wrist i'm all about 42mm+!

  7. #16
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    Re: Seiko NE88 Automatic Chronograph Movement

    Quote Originally Posted by ne57rico View Post
    i think there's a weird false equivalency between micros and affordability.
    You just said a mouthful.

    Yes, there are many who think "micro" automatically means "cheap". I don't think it's entirely irrational, since, logically, less-well-known brands typically cost less (apples-to-apples) than better-known brands.

    But beyond the apples-to-apples comparisons, there is a danger zone of micro-brand pricing, where something can be both value-priced AND be just too much money for many people to pay for a "micro".

    Example - a micro produces a $1500 automatic chronograph, with specs, components and quality easily/favorably comparable to automatic chronographs from mainstream brands, where the prices are closer to $3k.

    The $1500 micro is actually value-priced, but many will balk at paying that much for a watch from a brand few non-watch geeks have heard of.

    Even if I can get 100 people to agree to pay what it's worth, and use the other 200 cases to make and sell a meca-quartz version, it still isn't something I want to do, because both the auto and meca-q versions will have a higher return for service rate than a basic three-hander (raising my costs), and neither will sell as quickly as a basic three-hander (slower inventory turns mean slower cash flow), nor have the same sort of margin as the basic three-hander, because both will need to be more value-priced.

    Example - "$1500 for a micro??? So what if it's an automatic chronograph? For that much money, I want a well-known brand!" combined with "$500 for a meca-quartz??? So what if it's a MECA-quartz? It's still QUARTZ! For that much money, I want a mechanical movement!"

    Meanwhile, I'm just sitting here thinking, "Yep, and 10% of both versions will be coming back for service because the seconds hand is mis-aligned due to the torque in the flyback mechanism overwhelming the small amount of friction holding the seconds hand in place. And I'm sure I'll end up replacing 5% of the meca-q movements because some of those numbnuts will fry the module doing battery replacement at home. Plus, I get the joy of seeing noobs complain about it all online..."

    So...nope. Not for me or my business, no thank you. Let some other schmuck have those headaches. I'll stick to what works, thank you very much...
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  8. #17
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    Re: Seiko NE88 Automatic Chronograph Movement

    Quote Originally Posted by docvail View Post
    "Still, it's quite surprising that no one else thought about this or managed to pull it off until now..."

    Huh?

    Which part? The part where they make an automatic chronograph with the NE88, or the part where the startup makes almost no profit whatsoever on their Kickstarter project?

    Because (A), both of those have been done before, and (B), the first isn't that hard to pull off, while the second makes me wonder why anyone would want to pull it off.


    Add a bottle of all new Tapatalk to a tank of gas for more power, better mileage, and longer life.
    No, I meant it's surprising no one else thought to pull off the combination of low margin per piece times huge volume, all financed by an unbelievably high KS funding goal, to be able to deliver a very affordable and reliable auto-chrono to the market. But I guess you understood that and were just trying to be a smartass ;)

    Thanks for your input by the way. Do you think it could be possible that Seiko is indeed starting to offer these movements at a somewhat more affordable wholesale price to squeeze off the market their main rival (i.e. ETA)? Given Seiko's penchant for trying to reach very fast industries of scale it wouldn't be that far fetched.

    Oh, by the way, regarding the thickness, the NE88 has been used in watches as thin as 13.5mm (an example is actually William L.) so it's not really an issue of the movement but more of the case design...

  9. #18
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    Re: Seiko NE88 Automatic Chronograph Movement

    Quote Originally Posted by docvail View Post
    You just said a mouthful.

    Yes, there are many who think "micro" automatically means "cheap". I don't think it's entirely irrational, since, logically, less-well-known brands typically cost less (apples-to-apples) than better-known brands.

    But beyond the apples-to-apples comparisons, there is a danger zone of micro-brand pricing, where something can be both value-priced AND be just too much money for many people to pay for a "micro".

    Example - a micro produces a $1500 automatic chronograph, with specs, components and quality easily/favorably comparable to automatic chronographs from mainstream brands, where the prices are closer to $3k.

    The $1500 micro is actually value-priced, but many will balk at paying that much for a watch from a brand few non-watch geeks have heard of.

    Even if I can get 100 people to agree to pay what it's worth, and use the other 200 cases to make and sell a meca-quartz version, it still isn't something I want to do, because both the auto and meca-q versions will have a higher return for service rate than a basic three-hander (raising my costs), and neither will sell as quickly as a basic three-hander (slower inventory turns mean slower cash flow), nor have the same sort of margin as the basic three-hander, because both will need to be more value-priced.

    Example - "$1500 for a micro??? So what if it's an automatic chronograph? For that much money, I want a well-known brand!" combined with "$500 for a meca-quartz??? So what if it's a MECA-quartz? It's still QUARTZ! For that much money, I want a mechanical movement!"

    Meanwhile, I'm just sitting here thinking, "Yep, and 10% of both versions will be coming back for service because the seconds hand is mis-aligned due to the torque in the flyback mechanism overwhelming the small amount of friction holding the seconds hand in place. And I'm sure I'll end up replacing 5% of the meca-q movements because some of those numbnuts will fry the module doing battery replacement at home. Plus, I get the joy of seeing noobs complain about it all online..."

    So...nope. Not for me or my business, no thank you. Let some other schmuck have those headaches. I'll stick to what works, thank you very much...
    Genuinely interested in understanding why you think a meca-quartz would have a higher return for service rate than a basic mechanical three hander. Auto-chrono I understand. But meca-quartz? Shouldn't the fact that it has less moving parts, pivot points etc. than a basic mechanical automatic guarantee a higher longevity? Or is it just due to the flyback mechanism?

  10. #19
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    Re: Seiko NE88 Automatic Chronograph Movement

    Quote Originally Posted by t_mac86 View Post
    No, I meant it's surprising no one else thought to pull off the combination of low margin per piece times huge volume, all financed by an unbelievably high KS funding goal, to be able to deliver a very affordable and reliable auto-chrono to the market. But I guess you understood that and were just trying to be a smartass ;)
    I was being a smartass, but that's "normal".

    999 pieces isn't "huge" volume, even for a micro.

    It's not enough to dramatically lower the production costs (because of "economies of scale"), nor would there seem to be enough profit in that price/margin/volume to hire someone to deal with all the support needs and order fulfillment, which means the one a-hole who owns the microbrand gets stuck dealing with the higher-than usual support needs AND the lower than needed margins.

    So, for me, knowing the numbers of this business as well as I do (they're practically tattoo'd on my frontal lobe), this looks like a horrible idea, but feel free to dismiss what I say, since I've only sold about 4,000 watches.

    You wouldn't be the first guy on this forum to think I didn't know what I was talking about, or that I wasn't worth listening to.

    Quote Originally Posted by t_mac86 View Post
    Thanks for your input by the way.
    Sho' 'nuff.

    Quote Originally Posted by t_mac86 View Post
    Do you think it could be possible that Seiko is indeed starting to offer these movements at a somewhat more affordable wholesale price to squeeze off the market their main rival (i.e. ETA)? Given Seiko's penchant for trying to reach very fast industries of scale it wouldn't be that far fetched.
    I don't think Seiko thinks that way. If they wanted to offer them at a lower price, I'd have heard of it.

    I haven't heard of it.

    Look - there's always going to be some idiot who thinks HE'S going to be the guy to light the business up by underselling the competition. He's wrong. Look at what Hemel and Straton charge for NE88 chronos - those are RECENT examples, and CHEAP.

    What part of this seems wrong - the established micros selling for $1k, or the new brand no one's ever heard of falling a$$-backwards into a secret stash of dirt-cheap NE88's?

    Quote Originally Posted by t_mac86 View Post
    Oh, by the way, regarding the thickness, the NE88 has been used in watches as thin as 13.5mm (an example is actually William L.) so it's not really an issue of the movement but more of the case design...
    Oh, by the way, unless that watch already exists in physical, three-dimensional space, and someone other than the people selling it have put calipers on it, I don't give a rats patootie what William L or anyone else says about the thickness, especially since I know the silly games men play when discussing the thickness of many things, including watches.

    Case thickness = movement thickness + necessary clearances + necessary caseback/crystal thickness to achieve desired water resistance. Call me a slave to Newtonian physics, but there's no escaping the math involved.

    If they say it's 13.5mm, I say, (A), that's not really "thin", (B), what's the water resistance, (C) what's the diameter (because crystal and caseback thickness will increase with diameter, by necessity, in order to maintain desired WR), and (D) are those jackwagons pulling the old "not including crystal/caseback" trick on you?

    Because, when I say my watch would be 16mm thick, I'm not guessing. I KNOW how thick it would be, and that thickness INCLUDES both crystal AND caseback when I provide the measurement, unlike many of my competitors, who apparently think case wall height is all you care about, and the crystal / caseback just don't matter.

    Trust me, I design watches for a living. The NE88 movement is a beast. It's 7.62mm thick WITHOUT the hands post. With the hands post, it's over 10mm thick, to which you have to add necessary clearances above and below, then your crystal and caseback. There's no freaking way in hell that watch is 13.5mm. Don't piss down my leg and tell me it's raining. If it is, they don't have the clearances they need, and there's a good chance the seconds hand will end up scraping the under-side of the crystal. Have fun with that.

    They'll get a little thinness by keeping the diameter to 40mm (curiosity made me look) and WR down to 10 ATM (ditto), but I can tell by looking at the pics on their project that the watch is thicker than 13.5mm.

    So...yeah, please don't tell me thickness isn't an issue.

    Quote Originally Posted by t_mac86 View Post
    Genuinely interested in understanding why you think a meca-quartz would have a higher return for service rate than a basic mechanical three hander. Auto-chrono I understand. But meca-quartz? Shouldn't the fact that it has less moving parts, pivot points etc. than a basic mechanical automatic guarantee a higher longevity? Or is it just due to the flyback mechanism?
    It's mostly the flyback mechanism, though both movements are going to have a higher return rate when compared to simpler movements (like basic 3-handers). I don't know how much you know about movements, but generally, more complicated = more problems = higher returns rates.

    The seconds hand is friction-fit on the hands post. Both are small, and I know - FOR CERTAIN - that those hands posts and seconds hands are often just a wee bit out of tolerance, such that the friction can be less, due to parts being smaller/larger than spec, even by a fraction of a mm.

    The momentum involved in the flyback is OFTEN enough to overcome the friction holding the hand aligned, and there's no re-zeroing function in those movements, like with quartz movements (non-flyback types).

    So, ipso-facto, you get a lot of people complaining about their seconds hand not resetting to zero, and a lot of returns to re-set seconds hands, but in some cases, the hand and/or the post is out of tolerance, in which case, it's going to be a repeat issue.

    ...

    Look, mate, I've noticed your thread topics frequently give off a "thinking about starting my own brand" sort of vibe, like you're here doing research. I appreciate a spirited debate as much as the next guy, and I think it's good to test the expertise of people claiming to be experts, especially on the internet, but...

    I'm not that guy. If you ask a question like you did in the OP, and I weigh in, I'm not BS'ing you. I wouldn't say anything I wasn't damned sure about. If I say it, it's true, for certain. If I wasn't sure, I'd say "I think". If I sound sure, I am. I'm sneaking up on 20k posts, and it's been a LOOOOONNNNGGGG time since someone who wasn't me caught me saying something that wasn't correct.

    I'm happy to play along with your game, but not if I have to re-litigate every old argument I've ever participated in. How about I just drop some knowledge-bombs, and move on?

    "Why aren't there more automatic chronographs?" was the big question when I got here, 5 years ago, and it was the first question I answered when I started my business.

    If it didn't kill Osterman, it certainly wouldn't kill me.

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    Re: Seiko NE88 Automatic Chronograph Movement

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